Scotland is on the brink of discovering if a just transition away from fossil fuels will be a reality or just a slogan
The closure of Grangemouth is a huge issue for Scotland. If this is handled badly it will show people that the ‘just transition’ is not going to happen with oil and gas any more than it did with coal mining, when workers were thrown on the scrap heap and whole communities collapsed into poverty and despair, leading to huge social problems which still persist today.
The biofuels market doesn't yet exist at scale. But it soon will - the demand is there and will increase as new rules over aviation pollution come into force. Scotland could move into a strong position to supply this emerging market.
But Scotland is not an independent country. Its needs are way down the priority list for the UK. Scotland holds just under 9% of seats in the UK Parliament. Holyrood has no say over how energy is regulated and so it can’t move to create the market framework that would be required to get this biofuels plan off the ground.
This situation shows the limits of devolution. Independent countries such as Sweden, Norway and Iceland are able to innovate and move towards a low-carbon future without throwing workers on the scrap heap. There is a huge opportunity here - but Scotland currently does not have the power to grasp it.